Episode 206: Special Session Special Episode Special (and "Game of Groans")

“No, I’M KING OF THE ASHES, YOU’RE A PHONY!”

The Colorado Republican Party has been on a Colorado Rockies-esque (hey, we have the superior games of hockey and basketball locked down okay don’t be greedy sportsfans) losing streak since Donald Trump ate the entire party in one bite after his surprise win in the 2016 election. The following midterms in 2018 were a landslide for Democrats, returning the blue team to a trifecta in state government for the first time since 2014, sweeping all four statewide constitutional offices (Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and Treasurer) sending Mike Coffman (somewhat temporarily) packing, and clocking big wins on gerrymandering, payday loan regulations, and even the constitutional repeal of slavery (yes, that was really a thing that needed to happen). 2020 was arguably even stronger, the likes of which we hadn’t seen in Colorado since the absolute commanding FDR win in 1936, yeeting Cory Gardner, passing statewide paid medical and family leave, adding Colorado to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, and defeating Trump by a whopping 13.5 point stunner, the largest margin of victory for any candidate in Colorado since Ronald Reagan’s 28.32% devastating avalanche against Walter Mondale in 1984.

We, too are a little freaked out by how good this AI cartoon is, including the mysterious signature in the bottom-right???

And we hadn’t even found the ceiling yet, in 2022 Democrats earned supermajorities in the House and a one-vote-shypermajority in the Senate, reelected all of our statewide constitutional officers, and absolutely crushed Joe O’Dea (despite the limitless cope of the professional right wing class in this state aided and abetted, by all places, by the New York Times):

No, it was not closer than expected, a bunch of morons just decided Trafalgar and Rasmussen were suddenly reliable pollsters in this one race in this one state that was obviously blue. Yes we have kept this screenshot on our phones since 2022. No we’re not going to delete it.

Yes, we will die mad about all the hoopla that was made about an election that Bennet ended up winning by 14.6 fucking %.

And, just for posterity, here’s the last 22 years of state government control by party in Colorado, notice anything?

Via Ballotpedia

Anyway, this is a long way of going about saying Colorado is a fucking Blue State and will be so for the foreseeable future. Democrats have utterly dominated elections because we have better ideas, better candidates, better campaigns, and better blogs and podcasts. But, the somewhat unsung reality of the situation is that while Democrats are good here, Republicans and their ideas, candidates, campaigns, blogs and (probably) podcasts are just trash.

The only way that Colorado conservatives, their donors, and their operatives have remained relevant in any way in Colorado for the past 8 years is through two avenues: deceptively worded ballot initiatives and nonpartisan municipal elections. The common denominator here is that both strategies involve not having to sell voters on someone with an “R” next to their name on the ballot, and, if you have enough money, you can get the desiccated husk of Mike Coffman elected Mayor of Aurora or force a special legislative session to snip property taxes in order to avoid a statewide fiscal calamity the likes of which we haven’t seen since 1992’s TABOR collided with the 2007-2009 Great Recession. The Colorado Sun has an excellent longform piece on the politics and the pressure system that caused the special session that just wrapped up, and we encourage you to give it a read (and listen to this episode of GMS) while we continue opining here about the atmospherics of Colorado politics.

We sure fuckin’ have.

There are really only two major elections this cycle in Colorado that are remotely competitive, and one of them really shouldn’t be. We’re of course talking about Colorado’s 8th Congressional District where friend of the pod (whose recent revelations about her struggles with depression have made us proud) Dr. Yadira Caraveo who will win reelection relatively easily against First Term State Rep. Gabe-ish Evans despite the fact that it’s the only race attracting any level of real outside spending. What makes us so confident? Well, we’re pretty good at this stuff, have seen plenty of Colorado politicians come and go, and Dr. Caraveo is about as uniquely good for this district as Gabe-ish is off-key for it. Once again, the GOP’s paper-thin, superficial, cynical side came out in the recruitment and nomination of Gabe-ish Evans, a barely-one-term State Representative whose only marketable qualities so far seem to be the fact that he is a Latino cop and a veteran. None of which are bad things, mind you, on any more substantial a human being than Gabe-ish, that kind of profile could make this a real race, but stick around a minute for some quick reasons why we don’t think that will be the case this time.

Why does the caption of this photo feel kind of like a threat?

And don’t just take our word for it, the fundraising numbers tell a lot of the story too.

Via FEC.gov

As you can see, as of the last reporting period on July 28th, Dr. Caraveo has a whopping $3.5 million on hand after raising a massive $4.5 million, a very well managed 33% burn rate. As we predicted, Gabe-ish had to spend a significant number of resources ensuring his nomination against the potential self-funding ability of his primary opponent, Janak Joshi, and his anemic fundraising ability left him with a mere $500k in the bank after raising only $1 million so far in the entirety of this campaign, which is not only clearly not enough to overcome Dr. Caraveo’s herculean fundraising efforts, but not enough to mount anything resembling a competitive bid for Congress.

This is all a direct result of Dave “let’s go bankrupt” Williams’ total cannibalism of a once-competetive political party, Colorado voters’ complete inability and refusal to vibe with Donald Trump, and the fact that the GOP would rather spend their time on petty games of “who’s on first” than do their jobs and try to win elections.

With the 7th Congressional District totally off the board (ask me how I know) and the other races in the state essentially drawn to be too safe to contest, we’ve been getting asked about a Boebert-less 3rd district and a Boebert-ful 4th district, and what the chances are for Democrats to pick up either. Fortunately for me, that’s a question for the next newsletter. Fortunately for you, I’m going to try go get that written before the end of the week as part of a project we hope to undergo for the rest of this election cycle, namely, more newsletters, and perhaps even a paid option for those of you who REALLY want to go deeper into Colorado politics.

We also talked quite a bit about the special session, the politics of that, a State House Rep. who cyberbullied her kid’s teacher, and a VERY LONG LIST of Colorado Ballot Measures that Jason has an excellent piece covering the odds over at ColoradoPols.com.

That’s it for this week’s episode! If you loved listening to it as much as we loved recording it, you can thank us by subscribing to the pod wherever you listen, following us over on Nice Twitter aka Threads, and forwarding this email or sharing this post with your friends, your enemies, and whoever the hell is the Colorado Republican Party Chairman! THANK YOU so much for listening, and we’ll see you next time!